2020-09-02

警惕！我们还是低估了印度…（好文，强烈推荐）

精读思考社 今天

来源：文子稻ID：wenzidao666

169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了，把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢，没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想，那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会，你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡，但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人，就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本，并去倾情出演吧！177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者，不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌，也要优雅的谢幕，感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧，见的世面多了，你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧，管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能！“不可能”的意思是：“不，可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的，不管你的境遇如何，你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难，都要继续前进，因为只有你放弃的那一刻，你才输了。    When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mothe凝固的熔岩流。火星上常常有猛烈的大风，大风扬起沙尘能形成可以覆盖火星全球的特大型沙尘暴。每次沙尘暴可持续数个星期。火星两极的冰冠和火星大气中含有水份。从火星表面获得的探测数据证明，在远古时期，火星曾经有过液态的水，而且水量特别大。[51] 土星是离太阳第六颗行星，直径120536㎞，体积仅次于木星。主要由氢组成，还有少量的氦与微量元素，内部的核心包括岩石和冰，外围由数层金属氢和气体包裹着。地球距离土星13亿公里。土星的引力比地球强2.5倍，能够牵引太阳系内其它行星，使地球处于一个椭圆轨道中运行，并且与太阳保持适当距离，适宜生命繁衍。当土星轨道倾斜20度将使地球轨道比金星轨道更接近太阳，同时，这将导致火星完全离开太阳系。[52]  土星是已知唯一密度小于水的行星，假如能够将土星放入一个巨大的浴池之中，它将可以漂浮起来。土星有一个巨大的磁气圈和一个狂风肆虐的大气层，赤道附近的风速可达1800千米/时。在环绕土星运行的31颗卫星中间，土卫六是最大的一颗，比水星和月球还大，也是太阳系中唯一拥有浓厚大气层的卫星。[53] 天王星是离太阳第七颗行星，51118km。体积约为地球的65倍，在九大行星中仅次于木星和土星。天王星的大气层中83%是氢，15%为氦，2%为甲烷以及少量的乙炔和碳氢化合物。上层大气层的甲烷吸收红光，使天王星呈现蓝绿色。大气在固定纬度集结成云层，类似于木星和土星在纬线上鲜艳的条状色带。天王星云层的平均温度为零下193摄氏度。质量为8.6810±13×10²⁵kg，相当于地球质量的14.63倍。密度较小，只有1.24克/立方厘米，为海王星密度值的74.7%。[54] 恒星 恒星 海王星是离太阳的第八颗行星，直径49532千米。海王星绕太阳运转的轨道半径为45亿千米，公转一周需要165年。海王星的直径和天王星类似，质量比天王星略大一些。海王星和天王星的主要大气成分都是氢和氦，内部结构也极为相近，所以说海王星与天王星是一对孪生兄弟。[55]  海王星有太阳系最强烈的风，测量到的时速高达2100公里。海王星云顶的温度是－218 °C，是太阳系最冷的地区之一。海王星核心的温度约为7000 °C，可以和太阳的表面比较。海王星在1846年9月23日被发现，是唯一利用数学预测而非有计划的观测发现的行星。[56] 冥王星，位于海王星以外的柯伊伯带内侧，是柯伊伯带中已知的最大天体。[57]  直径约为2370±20km，是地球直径的18.5%。[58]  2006年8月24日，国际天文学联合会大会24日投票决定，不再将传统九大行星之一的冥王星视为行星，而将其列入“矮行星”。大会通过的决议规定，“行星”指的是围绕太阳运转、自身引力足以克服其刚体力而使天体呈圆球状、能够清除其轨道附近其他物体的天体。在太阳系传统的“九大行星”中，只有水星、金星、地球、火星、木星、土星、天王星和海王星符合这些要求。冥王星由于其轨道与海王星的轨道相交，不符合新的行星定义，因此被自动降级为“矮行星”。[59]  冥王星的表面温度大概在-238到-228℃之间。冥王星的成份由70%岩石和30%冰水混合而成的。地表上光亮的部分可能覆盖着一些固体氮以及少量 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 卫星拍月球经过地球，可见清晰月球背面 [60] 的固体甲烷和一氧化碳，冥王星表面的黑暗部分可能是一些基本的有化氢、氰化氢和甲醛。科学家得出结论称，彗星的气味闻起来像是臭鸡蛋、马尿、酒精和苦杏仁的气味综合。[65-66] “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 “67P/楚留莫夫-格拉希门克”彗星 [67] 在太阳系的周围还包裹着一个庞大的“奥尔特云”。星云内分布着不计其数的冰块、雪团和碎石。其中的某些会受太阳引力影响飞入内太阳系，这学说，在原有的轨道（或称小天体轨道）上又增加了更多的天体运行轨道。这一模式称每颗行星都沿着一个小轨道作圆周运行，而小轨道又沿着该行星的大轨道绕地球作圆周运动。几百年之后，这一模式的漏洞越来越明显。科学家们又在这个模式上增加了许多轨道，行星就这样沿着一道又一道的轨道作圆周运动。哥白尼想用“现代”（16世纪的）技术来改进托勒密的测量结果，以期取消一些小轨道。在长达近20年的时间里，哥白尼不辞辛劳日夜测量行星的位置，但其测量获得的结果仍然与托勒密的天体运行模式没有多少差别。哥白尼想知道在另一个运行着的行星上观察这些行星的运行情况会是什么样的。基于这种设想，哥白尼萌发了一个念头：假如地球在运行中，那么这些行星的运行看上去会是什么情况呢？这一设想在他脑海里变得清晰起来了。一年里，哥白尼在不同的时间、不同的距离从地球上观察行星，每一个行星的情况都不相同，这是他意识到地球不可能位于星星轨道的中心。经过20年的观测，哥白尼发现唯独太阳的周年变化不明显。这意味着地球和太阳的距离始终没有改变。如果地球不是宇宙的中心，那么宇宙的中心就是太阳。的发现才使牛顿有能力确定运动定律和万有引力定律。哥白尼的日心宇宙体系既然是时代的产物，它就不能不受到时代的限制。反对神学的不彻底性，同时表现在哥白尼的某些观点上，他的体系是存在缺陷的。哥白尼所指的宇宙是局限在一个小的范围内的，具体来说，他的宇宙结构就是今天我们所熟知的太阳系，即以太阳为中心的天体系统。宇宙既然有它的中心，就必须有它的边界，哥白尼虽然否定了托勒玫的“九重天”，但他却保留了一层恒星天，尽管他回避了宇宙是否有限这个问题，但实际上他是相信恒星天球是宇宙的“外壳”，他仍然相信天体只能按照所谓完美的圆形轨道运动，所以哥白尼的宇宙体系，仍然包含着不动的中心天体。但是作为近代自然科学的奠基人，哥白尼的历史功绩是伟大的。确认地球不是宇宙的中心，而 Abandoned. Chosen. Special. Those concepts became part of who Jobs was and how he regarded himself. His closest friends think that the knowledge that he was given up at birth left some scars. “I think his desire for complete control of whatever he makes derives directly from his personality and the fact that he was abandoned at birth,” said one longtime colleague, Del Yocam. “He wants to control his environment, and he sees the product as an extension of himself.” Greg Calhoun, who became close to Jobs right after college, saw another effect. “Steve talked to me a lot about being abandoned and the pain that caused,” he said. “It made him independent. He followed the beat of a different drummer, and that came from being in a different world than he was born into.” Later in life, when he was the same age his biological father had been when he abandoned him, Jobs would father and abandon a child of his own. (He eventually took responsibility for her.) Chrisann Brennan, the mother of that child, said that being put up for adoption left Jobs “full of broken glass,” and it helps to explain some of his behavior. “He who is abandoned is an abandoner,” she said. Andy Hertzfeld, who worked with Jobs at Apple in the early 1980s, is among the few who remained close to both Brennan and Jobs. “The key question about Steve is why he can’t control himself at times from being so reflexively cruel and harmful to some people,” he said. “That goes back to being abandoned at birth. The real underlying problem was the theme of abandonment in Steve’s life.” Jobs dismissed this. “There’s some notion that because I was abandoned, I worked very hard so I could do well and make my parents wish they had me back, or some such nonsense, but that’s ridiculous,” he insisted. “Knowing I was adopted may have made me feel more independent, but I have never felt abandoned. I’ve always felt special. My parents made me feel special.” He would later bristle whenever anyone referred to Paul and Clara Jobs as his “adoptive” parents or implied that they were not his “real” parents. “They were my parents 1,000%,” he said. When speaking about his biological parents, on the other hand, he was curt: “They were my sperm and egg bank. That’s not harsh, it’s just the way it was, a sperm bank thing, nothing more.” Silicon Valley The childhood that Paul and Clara Jobs created for their new son was, in many ways, a stereotype of the late 1950s. When Steve was two they adopted a girl they named Patty, and three years later they moved to a tract house in the suburbs. The finance company where Paul worked as a repo man, CIT, had transferred him down to its Palo Alto office, but he could not afford to live there, so they landed in a subdivision in Mountain View, a less expensive town just to the south. There Paul tried to pass along his love of mechanics and cars. “Steve, this is your workbench now,” he said as he marked off a section of the table in their garage. Jobs remembered being impressed by his father’s focus on craftsmanship. “I thought my dad’s sense of design was pretty good,” he said, “because he knew how to build anything. If we needed a cabinet, he would build it. When he built our fence, he gave me a hammer so I could work with him.” Fifty years later the fence still surrounds the back and side yards of the house in Mountain View. As Jobs showed it off to me, he caressed the stockade panels and recalled a lesson that his father implanted deeply in him. It was important, his father said, to craft the backs of cabinets and fences properly, even though they were hidden. “He loved doing things right. He even cared about the look of the parts you couldn’t see.” His father continued to refurbish and resell used cars, and he festooned the garage with pictures of his favorites. He would point out the detailing of the design to his son: the lines, the vents, the chrome, the trim of the seats. After work each day, he would change into his dungarees and retreat to the garage, often with Steve tagging along. “I figured I could get him nailed down with a little mechanical ability, but he really wasn’t interested in getting his hands dirty,” Paul later recalled. “He never really cared too much about m189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力，才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车，只有不断前进，才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心，最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉，并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用，就是让你快乐加倍，痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时，整个宇宙都会来帮忙。echanical things.” “I wasn’t that into fixing cars,” Jobs admitted. “But I was eager to hang out with my dad.” Even as he was growing more aware that he had been adopted, he was becoming more attached to his father. One day when he was about eight, he discovered a photograph of his father from his time in the Coast Guard. “He’s in the engine room, and he’s got his shirt off and looks like James Dean. It was one of those Oh wow moments for a kid. Wow, oooh, my parents were actually once very young and really good-looking.” Through cars, his father gave Steve his first exposure to electronics. “My dad did not have a deep understanding of electronics, but he’d encountered it a lot in automobiles and other things he would fix. He showed me the rudiments of electronics, and I got very interested in that.” Even more interesting were the trips to scavenge for parts. “Every weekend, there’d be a junkyard trip. We’d be looking for a generator, a carburetor, all sorts of components.” He remembered watching his father negotiate at the counter. “He was a good bargainer, because he knew better than the guys at the counter what the parts should cost.” This helped fulfill the pledge his parents made when he was adopted. “My college fund came from my dad paying $50 for a Ford Falcon or some other beat-up car that didn’t run, working on it for a few weeks, and selling it for $250—and not telling the IRS.” The Jobses’ house and the others in their neighborhood were built by the real estate developer Joseph Eichler, whose company spawned more than eleven thousand homes in various California subdivisions between 1950 and 1974. Inspired by Frank Lloyd Wright’s vision of simple modern homes for the American “everyman,” Eichler built inexpensive houses that featured floor-to-ceiling glass walls, open floor plans, exposed post-and-beam construction, concrete slab floors, and lots of sliding glass doors. “Eichler did a great thing,” Jobs said on one of our walks around the neighborhood. “His houses were smart and cheap and good. They brought clean design and simple taste to lower-income people. They had awesome little features, like radiant heating in the floors. You put carpet on them, and we had nice toasty floors when we were kids.” Jobs said that his appreciation for Eichler homes instilled in him a passion for making nicely designed products for the mass market. “I love it when you can bring really great design and simple capability to something that doesn’t cost much,” he said as he pointed out the clean elegance of the houses. “It was the original vision for Apple. That’s what we tried to do with the first Mac. That’s what we did with the iPod.” Across the street from the Jobs family lived a man who had become successful as a real estate agent. “He wasn’t that bright,” Jobs recalled, “but he seemed to be making a fortune. So my dad thought, ‘I can do that.’ He worked so hard, I remember. He took these night classes, passed the license test, and got into real estate. Then the bottom fell out of the market.” As a result, the family found itself financially strapped for a year or so while Steve was in elementary school. His mother took a job as a bookkeeper for Varian Associates, a company that made scientific instruments, and they took out a second mortgage. One day his fourth-grade teacher asked him, “What is it you don’t understand about the universe?” Jobs replied, “I don’t understand why all of a sudden my dad is so broke.” He was proud that his father never adopted a servile attitude or slick style that may have made him a better salesman. “You had to suck up to people to sell real estate, and he wasn’t good at that and it wasn’t in his nature. I admired him for that.” Paul Jobs went back to being a mechanic. His father was calm and gentle, traits that his son later praised more than emulated. He was also resolute. Jobs described one exampl What made the neighborhood different from the thousands of other spindly-tree subdivisions across America was that even the ne’er-do-wells tended to be engineers. “When we moved here, there were apricot and plum orchards on all of these corners,” Jobs recalled. “But it was beginning to boom because of military investment.” He soaked up the history of the valley and developed a yearning to play his own role. Edwin Land of Polaroid later told him about being asked by Eisenhower to help build the U-2 spy plane cameras to see how real the Soviet threat was. The film was dropped in canisters and returned to the NASA Ames Research Center in Sunnyvale, not far from where Jobs lived. “The first computer terminal I ever saw was when my dad brought me to the Ames Center,” he said. “I fell totally in love with it.” Other defense contractors sprouted nearby during the 1950s. The Lockheed Missiles and Space Division, which built submarine-launched ballistic missiles, was founded in 1956 next to the NASA Center; by the time Jobs moved to the area four years later, it employed twenty thousand people. A few hundred yards away, Westinghouse built facilities that produced tubes and electrical transformers for the missile systems. “You had all these military companies on the cutting edge,” he recalled. “It was mysterious and high-tech and made living here very exciting.” In the wake of the defense industries there arose a booming economy based on technology. Its roots stretched back to 1938, when David Packard and his new wife moved into a house in Palo Alto that had a shed where his friend Bill Hewlett was soon ensconced. The house had a garage—an appendage that would prove both useful and iconic in the valley—in which they tinkered around until they had their first product, an audio oscillator. By the 1950s, Hewlett-Packard was a fast-growing company making technical instruments. Fortunately there was a place nearby for entrepreneurs who had outgrown their garages. In a move that would help transform the area into the cradle of the tech revolution, Stanford University’s dean of engineering, Frederick Terman, created a seven-hundred-acre industrial park on university land for private companies that could commercialize the ideas of his students. Its first tenant was Varian Associates, where Clara Jobs worked. “Terman came up with this great idea that did more than anything to cause the tech industry to grow up here,” Jobs said. By the time Jobs was ten, HP had nine thousand employees and was the blue-chip company where every engineer seeking financial stability wanted to work. The most important technology for the region’s growth was, of course, the semiconductor. William Shockley, who had been one of the inventors of the transistor at Bell Labs in New Jersey, moved out to Mountain View and, in 1956, started a company to build transistors using silicon rather than the more expensive germanium that was then commonly used. But Shockley became increasingly erratic and abandoned his silicon transistor project, which led eight of his engineers—most notably Robert Noyce and Gordon Moore—to break away to form Fairchild Semiconductor. That company grew to twelve thousand employees, but it fragmented in 1968, when Noyce lost a power struggle to become CEO. He took Gordon Moore and founded a company that they called Integrated Electronics Corporation, which they soon smartly abbreviated to Intel. Their third employee was Andrew Grove, who later would grow the company by shifting its focus from memory chips to microprocessors. Within a few years there would be more than fifty companies in the area making semiconductors. The exponential growth of this industry was correlated with the phenomenon famously discovered by Moore, who in 1965 drew a graph of the speed of integrated circuits, based on the number of transistors that could be placed on a chip, and showed that it doubled about every two years, a trajectory that could be expected to continue. This was reaffirmed in 1971, when Intel was able to etch a complete central processing unit onto one chip, the Intel 4004, tronic amplifier. “So I raced home, and I told my dad that he was wrong.” “No, it needs an amplifier,” his father assured him. When Steve protested otherwise, his father said he was crazy. “It can’t work without an amplifier. There’s some trick.” “I kept saying no to my dad, telling him he had to see it, and finally he actually walked down with me and saw it. And he said, ‘Well I’ll be a bat out of hell.’” Jobs recalled the incident vividly because it was his first realization that his father did not know everything. Then a more disconcerting discovery began to dawn on him: He was smarter than his parents. He had always admired his father’s competence and savvy. “He was not an educated man, but I had always thought he was pretty damn smart. He didn’t read much, but he could do a lot. Almost everything mechanical, he could figure it out.” Yet the carbon microphone incident, Jobs said, began a jarring process of realizing that he was in fact more clever and quick than his parents. “It was a very big moment that’s burned into my mind. When I realized that I was smarter than my parents, I felt tremendous shame for having thought that. I will never forget that moment.” This discovery, he later told friends, along with the fact that he was adopted, made him feel apart—detached and separate—from both his family and the world. Another layer of awareness occurred soon after. Not only did he discover that he was brighter than his parents, but he discovered that they knew this. Paul and Clara Jobs were loving parents, and they were willing to adapt their lives to suit a son who was very smart—and also willful. They would go to great lengths to accommodate him. And soon Steve discovered this fact as well. “Both my parents got me. They felt a lot of responsibility once they sensed that I was special. They found ways to keep feeding me stuff and putting me in better schools. They were willing to defer to my needs.” So he grew up not only with a sense of having once been abandoned, but also with a sense that he was special. In his own mind, that was more important in the formation of his personality. School Even before Jobs started elementary school, his mother had taught him how to read. This, however, led to some problems once he got to school. “I was kind of bored for the first few years

如果印度要和中国开战，恐怕大家都不信。

事实上，印度已经做好了开战的准备！

据新华社成都8月31日电：西部战区新闻发言人张水利大校8月31日就中印边境局势发表谈话指出，8月31日，印军破坏前期双方多层级会谈会晤达成的共识，在班公湖南岸、热钦山口附近再次非法越线占控，公然挑衅，造成边境局势紧张。

印方此举严重侵犯中国领土主权，严重破坏中印边境地区和平稳定，出尔反尔、背信弃义，中方对此表示强烈反对。我们严正要求印方，立即撤回非法越线占控兵力，严格管控和约束一线部队，切实遵守承诺，避免事态进一步升级。中国军队正采取必要应对措施，并将密切关注事态发展，坚决维护中国领土主权和边境地区和平稳定。

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历史经验告诉我们，世界上没有毫无征兆的战争。

即使是日本偷袭珍珠港，在开打之前也有很多预兆。

大国开战，不是小国之间的打打闹闹。

https://image.ipaiban.com/upload-ueditor-image-20200831-1598879060425048105.png

尤其是在印度看来，这是一场雪耻之战，是一场事关国运之战。

政治是不流血的战争，战争是流血的政治。

我们分析一下，战争发生前通常会有哪些预兆。

第一、军事演习。

军事演习常常是发起战争的前兆，尤其是在剑拔弩张的边境上。

历史上很多次战争都是由军事演习直接演化为战争。美军更是经常借助演习，来发动对目标国家的进攻。

第二、中断经济交往。

断绝在经济上的往来，就是不想在发动战争时，受制于人。

第三、经济危机

战争不是做客、拉家常，是要死人的。没有人喜欢战争，除非是战争狂人。但是，如果发生经济危机，需要转嫁国内矛盾的话，情况就会发生逆转。

政治人物更喜欢对外发动战争，来稳定自己的政治地位。

第四、扩军备战

正所谓兵马未动粮草先行。打仗打的是后勤，而如何确保后勤供应，就需要提前做好战略物资的囤货。

第五、舆论宣传

俗话说，师出要有名。

例如，美国在发动伊拉克战争前，美国国务卿鲍威尔就是用一管洗衣粉在联合国宣称伊拉克藏有大规模杀伤性武器。

通过新闻宣传，同仇敌忾，团结民众，我们叫战前总动员。

所以，战前预兆是最准确、最直接的预兆，肯定就是媒体新闻。

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第六、撤侨。

很明显，撤侨是不想让自己的国民成为敌国的人质。

根据以上六点，我们分析一下中国是否做好了战前准备。

首先、我们没有做政.治动员。

2020年6月17日，即加勒万河谷冲突发生后，王外长就同印度外长苏杰生通电话。

其中王外长着重强调：要发展，不要战争。

但是，中国的克制，恐怕在印度人眼里就成了软弱。

其次、中国没有对外做统战。

这体现在国家领导人频繁出访（疫情不便）或电话沟通，同时向全世界宣传我们的底线和自卫反击的正义性。

显然，目前还没看到这样的新闻。

最后、媒体舆论

目前，不仅官媒没有大篇幅的中印边界冲突的报道，自媒体包括文子稻的多篇涉印文章都被外星人劫持了。

说明国家在刻意降温，不想打仗。

西南边境不是中国目前的首要任务，最多是次要任务。但要防止次要任务突然变成了紧急任务。

据新华社6月28日报道，自2020年7月1日零时起，预备役部队全面纳入军队领导指挥体系，由现行军地双重领导调整为党中央、中央军委集中统一领导。

有点备战的意味了。

相比中国而言，印度备战就充分很多。

首先、印度总理亲临前线劳军。

7月3号，莫老仙不顾年迈体弱、飞机坠毁的风险，突然跑到海拔4000米的中印边境前线达拉克列城。

当然不是去作法，劳军、督战、鼓舞士气、战前动员的意味更浓一些。

虽然，莫老仙在全国电视讲话中，承认“解放军没有闯入我国边境。”，意思很明显，就是承认印度军队闯入中国营地。

估计政治压力太大，在新闻稿里，又删除了这一段。

但是，在前线莫老仙彻底玩失忆，他在对当地印军的讲话中，声称“扩张主义时代已经结束……这种势力要么被摧毁、要么被迫后退。”

贼喊捉贼啊。

第二、边境增兵。

此前印度已经向拉达克地区增兵36000人，后面又增兵75000人。

十多万人呐！

在前线，印度除了14军属于常态部署外，又调集印度王牌15军装甲部队山地部队增援。

与此同时，大量战机部署到前线机场，印军战机甚至飞抵中印有争议地区。

明眼人一看，就知道这都是战前军事部署，是准备发动一场战役级别大战的。

第三、对华制裁。

目前印度全面抵制中国制造、推迟各港口中国产品的清关、封禁59款中国APP后，莫老仙关掉了微博账号，还禁止任何中国公司或与中国公司合资的企业参与道路建设项目。

这都是和中国中断经济往来的举动。

第四、媒体煽动仇华情绪。

这就是战前的政治总动员。

第五、紧急增加军购。

加勒万河谷冲突后，印军至少死亡20人。印度举国震动，和中国一战，一雪前耻的呼声高涨。

印度立即向俄罗斯、法国加紧购买战机和导弹，又向以色列急购反坦克导弹。如此高调增加武器进口，就是打大仗和长期作战的准备。

第六、开展外交斡旋。

主要是企图赢得美日澳英法等国的支持。

第七、疫情失控和经济危机并存。

用对外战争转移国内危机，很符合莫老仙的逻辑和常用手段。

以上种种，还能说，印度不准备打仗吗？

印度已经做好了打仗的准备，相反是中国还没做好打仗的准备。

至少，中国目前还不想打仗。

如果印度执意要打仗，中国再不想打仗似乎也由不得我们了。

目前，国内出现浓浓的轻敌情绪。

印度人铁了心的想雪1962年被解放军横扫之耻。

而国人则完全把印度当成笑话看。

这是胜利者的傲气，但是别忘了骄兵必败、哀兵必胜的祖训。

如果分析一下1962年那场对印自卫反击战，我们打了胜仗，却丢失了国土。

印度打了败仗，却扩张了领土。

如果仅从保卫领土上来看，中国虽胜实败，印度虽败实胜。

被印度侵占的藏南地区，可是风景绝美，土地肥沃，深林茂密，号称西藏的“江南”哦。

而且，战略位置极其关键。

藏南地区有多大？

网上说约9.3万平方公里。如果大家对这个数字没有印象的话，对比一下吧：

浙江省面积10.55万平方千米；台湾省面积3.6万平方公里；也就是说，藏南地区相当于一个浙江省或者大约3个台湾省！

1987年，印度宣布在藏南地区设立所谓的“阿鲁纳恰尔邦”，事实上完成了占领后的合法化程序。

我们只是在地图上保留了藏南的位置，印度却实际拥有了藏南！

这就是现实。

这次，印度和美国同时陷入疫情深渊，经济近乎断崖，双方都有甩锅中国的意愿。

美国想通过打压，剪中国的羊毛。

印度想承接从中国撤出的资金和产业链，实现印度制造的雄心。

在美国印太战略中，美印第一次合作不成功，不代表第二次合作不成功。

最近美印配合的很默契，印度在中印边境屯兵，美军在南海搞双航母演习。

如果没有2020年的这次世界大瘟疫，中印或许还能和平共处几年。

但是新冠疫情实在是太凶猛，印度完全失控，加上经济断崖，1亿多青壮年失业，莫老仙也一筹莫展，唯有对外发动战争，才能转嫁国内压力。

就冲印度这种几代人积攒的恨意和处心积虑的对华军事准备，我们就不得不防！

轻敌容易吃大亏！

本着料敌从宽的原则，如果印度执意要开战的话，战争的走向和后果会怎样？

首先、打赢有信心。

一旦开战，无论印度初期是否占了便宜，最终的命运仍然是失败！

这点信心我们还是要有的。因为战争打的是综合国力，是后勤保障能力，是关系到未来的国运。

仅仅这三方面，中国没有不胜的理由。而且中国还有台海、南海核心利益要处理，中国败不起！

前进一步，海阔天空，中华民族伟大复兴有望；后退一步，万丈深渊，台湾、南海生变，统一难以实现！

其次、要打，就要大打，打出100年的和平。

战端一开，中国要做好，立即收回拉达克、藏南故土的预案。还要做好帮助锡金复国、不丹实现完全独立、尼泊尔从印度收回被侵占的领土、巴基斯坦统一剩下的克什米尔地区的准备。

如果不能实现以上目标，虽胜尤败。

因为，这一战再收不回故土，尤其是藏南地区，今后恐怕就不会再有机会了。

那就意味着，中国领土不再是960万平方公里！任何人都承担不起这个历史责任！

领土不保，何谈大国地位？