When the plunge finally did happen, in March 1980, silver crashed back down below $11. It ruined Hunt, and he nearly brought down the whole U.S. economy as he fell.2 The Fed had to intervene to control the ripple effects.
All of this pounded an indelible lesson into my head: Timing is everything.
I was relieved that I was out of that market, but watching the richest man in the world—who was also someone I empathized with—go broke was jarring. Yet it was nothing compared to what was to come.
作者吸取教训后，将教训应用到人生中
At first, the markets went against me. But my experience with silver and other trades had taught me that I had a chronic problem with timing, so I believed I was just early and what I was expecting would happen soon. That didn’t take long to happen. By the fall of 1981, the tight Fed policies were having a devastating effect, my bond bets were beginning to pay off, and my kooky views were starting to look right on. In February 1982, the Fed temporarily added liquidity to avoid a cash crunch. In June, as the scramble for liquidity intensified, the Fed responded by printing money, increasing liquidity to its highest level since Paul Volcker’s appointment. But it still wasn’t enough.
Ray Dalio. Principles: Life and Work (Kindle 位置 604-609). Simon & Schuster. Kindle 版本.
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